Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
